Simply Baseball Notebook: Cover Stories

10 Guarantees Revisted

'COVER STORY': December 2003 - January 2004

It's Time to Face the Music
Our "10 Guarantees for 2003" Brought Mixed Results

Last March, we went out a limb and made 10 "guarantees" for the 2003 season.  Some were bold, some were borderline asasine, and some were so conservative that a even a republican lawyer would have agreed.  Now that the polls have closed and the totals are in, here is a look at how we fared.


He may be MVP, but A-Rod let us down.

1. What we said:  The Chicago Cubs WILL make the playoffs.
What really happened: The Cubs won the NL Central riding their young pitching, Sammy Sosa, and Dusty Baker.  They even advanced to the NLCS, before the billy goat caught up to them. (1-1)

2. What we said: Barry Bonds WILL hit .400.
What really happened: Bonds hit .341.  OK, this one was a reach. Bonds started the season rather slowly (relatively speaking), with his average hovering around .300 and wasn't able to overcome it.  He did however, win his unprecedented 6th MVP award. (1-2)

3. What we said: The Minnesota Twins WILL repeat as AL Central Champs. What really happened:  Despite under achieving for most of the season, the Twins got hot down the stretch and took home their second straight division crown. (2-3)

4. What we said: The Atlanta Braves run in the NL East WILL end.
What really happened:  The Braves cruised to another division title -- wishful thinking. (2-4)

5. What we said: The Montreal Expos WILL win more games than the New York Mets.
What really happened:  The Expos finished 83-79, the Mets posted a 66-95 -- not even close.  (3-5)

6. What we said: Ken Griffey Jr. WILL return to form.
What really happened:  Injuries limited the former superstar to 53 games.  He hit .247 with 13 HR. (3-6)

7. What we said: Roger Clemens WILL win his 300th game.
What really happened:  In early June, Clemens turned the trick against St. Louis.  OK, this was a gimme.  (4-7)

8. What we said: George Steinbrenner WILL melt down.
What really happened:  While the Boss never officially melted down, he did cause several in-season distractions and his Yanks didn't take home a 27th title.  We'll count this as a sacrifice fly: (4-7 with a SAC)

9. What we said: Alex Rodriguez WILL break Roger Maris' AL home run mark.
What really happened:  A-Rod hit 47 bombs -- not too shabby, but not nearly enough.  The AL MVP is still a good bet to eclipse this milestone in the coming years. (4-8 with a SAC)

10. What we said: Rickey Henderson WILL play this season.
What really happened:  After beginning the season with the Newark Bears of the independent Atlantic League, Henderson was picked up by the Dodgers during the All Star break to bolster their bench. (5-9 with a SAC)


Totals: A .556 average --  not too bad.  We nailed some and whiffed on others.  All in all, we did well enough to earn another shot in 2004.  Look for 10 more in the March 2004 issue.........

-photo by Sebastian Vannavong

Our 10 "Guarantees" for 2003

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