Simply Baseball Notebook: Perspectives

10 guarantees* of '04 revisted

'PERSPECTIVE': March 2005

The Results Are IN!
How we fared with our "10 Guarantees* for 2004"

Unlike some of our current government officials, we here a sBn believe in accountability.  We made “10 guarantees” before the 2004 season, and now it is time to face the music.  Yes, we made some mistakes.


1. What we said: A curse WILL be broken – either the Cubs or Red Sox will win the World Series.

What happened: As has been well documented, the Red Sox came back from a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS and swept away the Cardinals in the World Series.  This was the boldest of our predictions and we nailed it. (1-1)


2. What we said: The Braves run of division championships and playoff appearances WILL end.

What happened: The Braves shrugged off a slow start and went 96-66 en route to a 13th straight division title (not counting the strike-shortened 1994 season) and, of course, lost in the first round of the playoffs.  Please Florida or Philly, do the nation a great service this year and win the NL East. (1-2)


3. What we said: The Kansas City Royals WILL win the AL Central.

What happened: The Royals went a franchise worst 58-104 and finished in the cellar of the AL Central.  What were we thinking? (1-3)


4. What we said: Eric Gagne WILL blow a save.

What happened:  After a record shattering 84 consecutive saves (the old mark was 54), Eric Gagne proved he was human after all, blowing a 5-3 lead to the Arizona Diamondbacks on July 4. (2-4)


5. What we said: Mark Prior WILL win the NL Cy Young.

What happened:  Dogged by injuries the entire season, Prior never hit stride and finished the season with a 6-4 record and 4.02 ERA.  He, of course, did not appear on anyone’s Cy Young ballot. (2-5)


6. What we said: Clemens and Pettitte WILL disappoint Astros fans.

What happened:  We were sort of right, but also very wrong. Injuries limited Pettitte to 83 innings and 6 wins, but Clemens went 18-4 and the Astros finished one game short of their first World Series birth. (2-6)


7. What we said: Fred McGriff WILL hit his 500th home run.

What happened: After starting the season in Triple A, McGriff joined the Devil Rays in May, but hit just 2 home runs before being released in July.  It looks like the “Crime Dog” will end his career with 492 homers.  (2-7)


8. What we said: The A's post season run WILL end.

What happened:  Billy Beane’s boys took the Anaheim Angels to the season’s final weekend before running out of gas.  It was the first time since 1999 that the post season didn’t include the Oakland A’s.  (3-8)


9. What we said: The Yankees defense WILL do them in.

What happened:  Well, the Evil Empire did collapse in a monumental choke to Boston in the ALCS, but it really wasn’t their defense that did them in.  The super star laden, front-running team was done in by its starting pitching and lack of heart.  Since they did lose though, we’ll count this as a sacrifice bunt. (3-8)


10. What we said: Barry Bonds WILL begin to act his age.

What happened:  Hounded by steroid rumors and the side effects of his prickly personality, the NL MVP hit .362 (best in the NL) with 45 homeruns and a record 232 walks.  Of course, he did have some help. (3-9)


Totals:  Ouch! .333 may be a hell of a batting average, but in the predicting business it’s……well…….not good.  In two years we are 8-19 (.421) with two sacrifices.  We promise to do better this year.

Related sBn.com links:

10 Guarantees* for 2004

*Click here for FEEDBACK*

BACK to simply-BASEBALL-notebook.com